Tuesday, June 23, 2020

The US-Taliban Deal: A ray of hope for the battered Afghans

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Aditi Mohta

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The US-Taliban Deal: A ray of hope for the battered Afghans

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Global Views 360

Publication Date

June 23, 2020

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US Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo participates in a signing ceremony in Doha, Qatar, on February 29, 2020

US Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo participates in a signing ceremony in Doha, Qatar, on February 29, 2020 | Source: U.S. Department of State  via Wikimedia

On 11 September 2001, the attacks on the World Trade Centre and Pentagon in America killed over 3000 people for which Osama Bin Laden, the head of Al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility.. Osama Bin Laden was based in Afghanistan during this attack and was protected by the government of the day which was run by the radical Islamist group Taliban. Even after the repeated demands from the USA government, Taliban refused to hand over Osama bin Laden to the USA. 

George W. Bush, the president of America at that point of time, announced the first airstrikes against Afghanistan on 7 October 2001. As other countries joined in, the Taliban were quickly removed from power and a new pro-western government was installed. The new government, however, was never able to run its writ over the whole country. The Taliban regrouped and started gaining influence in the vast rural areas and continuously attacked the US-led international military coalition as well as Afghan forces. From that point onward, the U.S. and its allies have battled to stop Afghanistan's administration crumbling and to end attacks by the Taliban. 

After more than eighteen years of war in Afghanistan, on 29 February 2020, the United States and Taliban signed a peace deal which was the first step in ending the war. The agreement was signed in the Qatari capital Doha between Talibani political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad. The U.S. Defence Secretary Mark Esper said that signing of the accord would be a good step to end the war, the road ahead would not be secure. There would be a full withdrawal of all U.S. and coalition forces from Afghanistan within 14 months since the signing of the deal. The Taliban promised to cut ties with Al Qaeda and keep fighting the militant Islamic State group.  

What is in the peace agreement?

The peace agreement was signed after nine rounds of discussion and it contains four main points: cease-fire, withdrawal of foreign forces, intra-Afghan negotiations, and counter-terrorism assurances. 

  1. Cease-fire: The negotiators agreed to a temporary reduction in violence. They said that a permanent and comprehensive cease-fire will be an item on the agenda of the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations. 
  2. Withdrawal of foreign forces: Within the first 135 days, the U.S. will reduce its troops in Afghanistan from roughly 12,000 to 8,600, along with the allies of the U.S. also withdrawing their forces proportionately. If the Taliban follows through all the commitments that in the peace deal, all the U.S. troops along with the allies' troops will leave Afghanistan within fourteen months. 
  3. Counter-terrorism assurances: The United States invaded Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, mainly to eliminate the threat of terrorism and halt terrorist activities in the country. As a part of the agreement, the Taliban guaranteed that Afghanistan would not be used by any of its members or terrorist groups to threaten the security of the U.S. and its allies. 
  4. Intra-Afghan negotiations: The reason behind the intra-Afghan talks is to bring together negotiators from the Taliban and Afghan government. The peace deal also calls for an exchange of prisoners before the intra-Afghan negotiations. The intra-Afghan talks which were supposed to take place in March 2020, have been delayed. 

Challenges to the peace deal

While this deal can be seen as a stepping stone towards a more comprehensive agreement, many difficulties may come in the way. 

The United States and the Taliban had consented to the arrival of up to 5000 Taliban prisoners in return for up to one thousand Afghan security forces. However, the Afghan government said that it had not agreed on such an exchange. The process can become difficult due to a weak central government along with ethnic, tribal and sectarian differences. At the same time, many people say that the Taliban has gotten more than it gave up. 

Through the deal, the Taliban got their primary wish: removal of American troops from Afghanistan. Yet, they had failed to be specific about the civil rights that they had repressed when they were in power. The insurgents pledged to keep international terrorist groups like Al Qaeda from using Afghanistan as their base for attacks. 

The United States promised to work towards the gradual removal of Taliban leaders from the sanction blacklists of America and the United Nations. At the same time, the experts say that the Taliban is stronger than ever at this point. It controls many districts throughout the country and continues to launch significant attacks including in Kabul and on Afghan security forces. 

The peace process is also faced by the problem of the illegal drug trade. According to Afghan officials, more than 20 terrorist groups still operate inside the country, which is another threat to the deal. By signing the agreement, the U.S. and the Taliban state their commitment to reduce violence and not attack each other. What remains a worry is how much and how long the Taliban will hold fire on Afghan security forces before the cease-fire is finally reached in Afghan negotiations.

Sources that were used:

  1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/world/asia/us-taliban-deal.html
  2. http://diplomatist.com/2020/05/16/us-taliban-peace-deal-and-its-implications-for-central-asia/
  3. https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2020/02/war-afghanistan-2001-invasion-2020-taliban-deal-200229142658305.html
  4. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51689443
  5. https://www.dawn.com/news/1529415
  6. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-taliban-peace-deal-agreement-afghanistan-war
  7. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/afghanistan-taliban-sign-deal-america-longest-war-200213063412531.html
  8. https://www.dawn.com/news/1537384
  9. https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/u-s-taliban-peace-deal/7aab0f58-dd5c-430d-9557-1b6672d889c3/?itid=lk_inline_manual_3

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February 4, 2021 5:11 PM

Neom: The Futuristic town coming up in the Arabian desert

Ever since Mohammed bin Salman, popularly known as MBS, became the crown prince of Saudi Arabia in 2017 at a young age of 32 year, he has been working on twin objectives of liberalising the conservative laws of the country and diversifying its oil based economy.

In the last 2 to 3 years Saudi Arabia has done away with religious enforcers, allowed women to drive, loosened the strict clothing norms for women, reopened the cinema and other entertainment events by scaling down many of its ultra conservative rules and regulation.

File:Mohammad bin Salman (2018-06-14) 01.jpg
Mohammad Bin Salman | Source: Russian Presidential Executive Office via Wikimedia

On the economy front, MBS has started many projects to lessen the dependence on oil, of which Neom is the centerpiece. NEOM is a technologically advanced mega-city being built from scratch in the sands at the coast of the Red Sea and is considered to be the dream project of MBS. This magnificent city, will take about $500 billion to complete and be thirty three times the size of New York City. This project will make the country a technology hub, attract international tourists, and will reduce Saudi Arabian economy’s over-dependence on oil.

Neom will boost some of the features which are today seen only in some sci-fi movies. It will employ cloud seeding technology to bring rain in the desert town, display an artificial moon, and use flying taxis for intra city travel. The town will have some functional autonomy which include relaxed laws for women and tourists.

Three of the biggest consultancy firms of the world, Boston Consulting, Oliver Wyman and McKinsey & Co, were roped in by MBS in 2017, to bring his vision of Neom to life. “This is a challenge. The dream is easy but making it come true is very difficult” MBS said.

While the entire project is slated to be completed in 2025, the international airport is already constructed at Neom. Phase-1 of the project was supposed to be completed in 2020, however it was delayed due to the oil price crash and COVID-19 pandemic. “All of these projects will be delayed. It's not paused; it's continuing more slowly” said Ali Shihabi, a Washington-based analyst on the Neom advisory board.

Abdul-Rahim Al-Huwaiti, protestor who was shot dead | Source: MENA Rights

Saudi Arabia has done a wonderful job of letting the imaginations run wild to come up with an idea and start implementation, there are few downsides as well. The area where Neom is being built is home to the Huwaitat tribe who have to relocate elsewhere for the construction to take place. While most of the tribe members agreed to move on, few were not willing to do so. Abdul-Rahim Al-Huwaiti was one such member who actively resisted and criticized the government in videos posted on youtube. He was unfortunately shot dead by the government forces during an operation to clear his house in April, 2020 giving a blot to this wonderful project.

There are still some obstacles in the ‘perfect’ project of modernising Saudi Arabia. “The main project risk probably is the potential lack of large private investors. The local and international private sector will want to hear a lot more detail than what has been published to date” said Steffen Hertog, a leading scholar on Saudi Arabia, pointing out that a lot of clarifications and work is still required.

There is still time before this magnificent town rises to its full glory on the coast of the red sea in Arabian desert. We are eagerly waiting to see the flawless execution of a grand vision of Saudi Arabian crown prince Mohannad bin Salman in the form of the modern marvel, Neom.

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