Tuesday, August 4, 2020

Kosovo and Serbia- A never ending saga of conflict

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Syed Ahmed Uzair

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Kosovo and Serbia- A never ending saga of conflict

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Global Views 360

Publication Date

August 4, 2020

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US President George Bush with Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu and Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci in White House

US President George Bush with Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu and Kosovo Prime Minister Hashim Thaci in White House | Source: Wikimedia

Kosovo is a small landlocked country in the Western Balkans with a majority of ethnic Albanians and Muslims. The country formerly was a part of Serbia but declared independence in 2008. While Kosovo’s independence has been recognized by nearly a hundred nations including the US, countries like Russia and China along with a few European Union nations have sided with Serbia against Kosovo.

Kosovo and Serbia have been at crossroads for a long time. Kosovo used to be a Serbian province under the communist-run Yugoslavia. However, the dissolution of Yugoslavia and the move by Serbian leader Slobodan Milošević to bring Kosovo directly under Belgrade’s administration fuelled war between the two regions.

The situation worsened with the violence in the Bosnian War ensuing from 1992-95 which was termed as “ethnic cleansing” of Muslims. By 1996, the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), a paramilitary group had been formed in response to the campaign of Milošević. The situation remained tense with Serbian Police killing nearly 50 people of a KLA member’s family in 1998.

Violence continued to escalate from both sides as international calls for putting an end to the violence grew. "We are not going to stand by and watch the Serbian authorities do in Kosovo what they can no longer get away with doing in Bosnia," US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright reportedly said. The UN banned the sale of arms and ammunition to Serbia as NATO began to plan an intervention in 1998.

However, the situation escalated to a worse in the "Račak Massacre" of 1999, wherein Serbian special police killed 45 ethnic Albanians. The NATO then initiated a 77-day air campaign which ended with the withdrawal of the Serbian army and the paramilitary force of Kosovo. Kosovo became a self-governed territory post the NATO campaign under the United Nations.

Despite several efforts from the European Union and the UN, the two countries have failed to arrive at a common ground till date. Kosovo declared independence in 2008 but Serbia does not acknowledge it despite having no formal control in the region.

In 2016, the countries yet again saw each other at crossroads when Kosovo sought to attain 80% shares of the Trepca mining and metallurgical complex in the northern region which is dominated by Serbs. The dispute became so pressing that it became one of the agendas for the UN Security Council.

In early 2017, Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, issued an international arrest warrant for former Kosover guerrillas including Ramush Haradinaj who served as a commander in the 1998-99 war against Serbian rule. He also briefly served as Prime Minister of Kosovo in 2004 and 2005.

As Kosovo asked the EU to press Serbia for dropping the charges, government and opposition leaders called for an end to the EU-mediated talks between Serbia and Kosovo. Serbia’s move to give the nod for Haradinaj’s extradition from France where he was being detained was met by Kosovo’s move to cancel Serbian President’s visit to a mainly ethnic Serb town in Kosovo on the eve of Christmas Day.

The gunning down of Oliver Ivanović, an ethnic-Serb politician in northern Kosovo in 2018 was yet another setback for the worsening ties between the two countries. Then Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic termed it an “act of terrorism”.

Late in 2018, Serbia blocked Kosovo’s bid to join Interpol, a move that saw Kosovo raise customs duties on Serbian imports by 100%.

In May 2019, Kosovo carried out a large anti-corruption and anti-smuggling drill wherein it detained nearly 23 people including two UN personnel and fired tear gas as well as live ammunition as per a few reports. The entire drill was concentrated in a Serb-dominated region in the North.

Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic reacted by saying that he wants to "preserve peace and stability", but that Serbia "will be fully ready to protect its people at the shortest notice". The European Union, the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) and KFOR (the NATO-led international military presence) all called for the two countries to maintain peace. However, the situation remains critical.

With Serbia being under pressure from international peacekeepers, it’s highly unlikely that it will intervene through its military forces. However, its influence in the Northern region of Kosovo means that both the countries will have to work towards maintaining amicable ties with each other as Kosovo hopes to become a UN member and a fully functional state.

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February 4, 2021 5:14 PM

What If Trump Loses The Election... And Decides To Fight The Result

In an interview in July 2020, Donald Trump, President of the United States, told an American TV host, Chris Wallace that he is “not a good loser,” when asked about the possibility of the November Presidential election results not being in his favour. “I am not going to just say yes. I’m not going to say no.”

Since he began his run for President in the 2016 elections, Trump has been extremely vocal about claiming rigged elections even after he won, and that Democrats have set out to make him lose through a variety of alleged means. Similarly in this election, he has continuously claimed that expansion of absentee and mail-in ballots will ‘corrupt’ the election. Even before the pandemic, as early as May 2019, there were concerns that Trump won’t allow for an easy transition of power, to the extent that Speaker Nancy Pelosi had to comment on them.

Trump’s photo in Coronavirus section of a Newspaper | Source: Charles Deluvio via Unsplash

It’s possible Trump has been escalating this rhetoric because his COVID-19 mismanagement among other things, has put him behind his rival Joe Biden in national polls. It is bad enough that a President is questioning the integrity of elections with little to no proof to back up his exaggerations, but this will almost definitely lead to the people of the country— whether his supporters or not— distrusting the elections as well.  

Despite the absentee and mail-in ballots being provided due to the coronavirus pandemic, to enable social distancing and to allow people to vote safely from home. Trump has often played down the coronavirus pandemic, and called Anthony Fauci, the National Institutes of Health expert on infectious diseases, an “alarmist” for raising issues pertaining to COVID-19.

The chances of an “electoral meltdown” are slim, but not impossible; the right (or wrong) mix of factors can lead to disaster. Lawrence Douglas, professor of law, jurisprudence and social thought, at Amherst College, Massachusetts. imagined a scenario where the difference between Trump and Biden rests on swing states and mail ballot results. Given the chance of a higher than usual number of mail-in ballots this year due to the pandemic, delays in counting votes are to be expected. Trump wouldn’t be slow to claim rigged elections and refuse to wait for all votes to be counted and right-wing media wouldn’t be slow to broadcast this everywhere.

In a closely fought election like this US Presidential election , the ‘Swing states’ (where both parties enjoy similar levels of popularity) will play a major role in the outcome. Three of the major swing states in America: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania have Republican lawmakers but Democratic governors. Each state is required to submit electoral certificates declaring the election winner in their state. By the time all votes are counted, Republican legislatures and Democratic governors might end up submitting conflicting election results for the same state.

A similar stalemate had occurred in 1876. It led to a “disastrous” compromise and the 1887 Electoral Count Act, which, according to Professor Douglas, may prove deficient in preparing for an impasse like the one that currently looms in the realm of possibility.

If Trump were to challenge the result he might have a few options for his course of action. He could challenge the results in court, as happened in 2000 in the state of Florida. Or, Republicans in state legislatures might use the Constitution to override the decision of the popular vote.

According to speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democratic nominee Joe Biden, and some Trump campaign spokespeople believe that Trump will accept the results of the election but do not rule out the possibility of him putting up a fight.

For others, given what is known about Trump’s behaviour, it’s more or less anticipated that he, and his twitter, will be raging with a lot of accusations if he loses the election, especially if it happens by a close margin. The important questions related to what he chooses to do about it and who backs him up.

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