The USA electoral process is a complex one; caucuses and primaries, followed by national conventions, general elections, formation of the electoral college and the selection of the president. Each step of this process has a lot of subtleties, which vary widely from state to state.
Caucuses and Primaries: This is the initial step of the selection of president. This stage of choosing occurs within a political party, where the party picks the candidate to rally behind.
In the state “Primary”', the registered members of political parties cast votes to allocate delegates for the presidential nominees of their parties. In some of the states this is done through caucuses, where groups are formed behind various potential candidates and there is discussion and persuasion between various groups. Republican party allocates all the delegates directly through primary or caucus, however the Democratic party allocates some Super-Delegates over and above the directly elected ones. These selected or allocated delegates are sent to the national party convention to represent their nominees.
In the process occurring between the primaries and caucuses to the selection of the potential electors is decided entirely by the party. The democrats, after the 1968 democratic convention, made a formal mechanism to reduce power of party leaders over the selection process and ways to represent minorities in the electors. This, however, backfired for the party as the delegates selected by primaries voted according to candidates and not the party, which led to the 1972 democratic Presidential candidate to win in only one state. The rules were then reformed and the concept of Super-Delegates was introduced. The Republican party also followed a somewhat similar trajectory, but did not impose as many restrictions on the delegate selection process, and never took measures to include the minorities.
National Conventions: Each parties’ delegates then choose a final presidential nominee at a national party convention. The nominee picks another person, who would be the vice president in the case the nominee wins. Here, there can be pledged or unpledged delegates; pledged ones are bound to support the potential candidates they chose in the previous round, while the unbound, or superdelegates can support anyone they choose.
Electoral College: After each of the parties have selected their presidential candidate, the candidate campaigns across the country to gain favor from the general public. There are speeches, rallies, debates, and other outreach activities, in which the candidates promote themselves. Meanwhile, the parties select some respective potential electors in each state, which are the people who get the last vote in the selection of the president. Each party forms a slate of potential electors according to the state..
General Election:After this, the general election occurs, in which the public votes for a president. However, the public does not directly vote for the president; they vote for the slate of electors for that political party for that state.
After the general election, the Electors are appointed to the state in two ways.. Electors from all the states then form the electoral college, which is the body that votes for the president. The electors are not legally bound to vote for the party they are pledged to, but can be fined or disqualified if they defect. Throughout USA history, though, more than 99% of the electors have voted as pledged.
The electoral college presently has 538 electors and the candidate who wins 270 or more electoral votes, wins the Presidential election.
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Iran, Turkey, Qatar Alliance: Will this mark a shift in MENA's Balance of power?
Qatar, Iran and Turkey have been forming an alliance—which impacts several countries—especially in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. The move comes after Israel recently established its diplomatic relations with four Arab league countries, namely, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. The article covers how this move can have an impact on the balance of power in the region.
Support for the Palestinian Cause
The three countries are critical of the Israel-Arab ties and support the Palestinian cause. Various Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah as well, are shoring up ties with Turkey and other countries in the region that stand against normalization with Israel.
During his speech in the 75th United Nations General Assembly, Erdogan called out on Israel and proclaimed, “The occupation of Palestine is a bleeding wound.”
Since the Gaza attack, which killed 10 Turkish social activists aboard a ship by the Israeli commandos in international waters, the relationship between the two has only soured. After this incident, Turkey recalled its ambassador from Israel, downgrading the diplomatic status. Yet in 2016—after a few meetings—the relationship was restored. However, after another attack in Gaza in 2018, Turkey called back its ambassadors again and expelled the Israeli ambassador to Turkey. Since then they do not have full diplomatic status.
Following the attacks Erdogan—the president of Turkey—even called Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu “a terrorist.” The country has been openly supportive of the Palestinian cause, and has also sent aid for humanitarian relief to the Palestinians. Several Hamas leaders have been visiting, taking refuge, and even meeting with Erdogan.
On August 22, 2020, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh met Erdogan in Istanbul. Jibril Rajoub, secretary of Fatah’s Central Committee, as well arrived in Turkey on September 21, 2020 to meet with Haniyeh and his deputy Saleh al-Arouri and discuss ways to end the internal Palestinian division.
On the same day, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas phoned Erdogan and thanked him for his support for the Palestinian cause. The two have shared several calls since—discussing political developments and US pressure on the region to normalize ties with Israel and ways to face such pressure.
Turkey has tried to balance its relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, who happen to be arch rivals. But after the recent growing closeness with two of Saudi Arabia’s rival countries, Iran and Qatar, Turkey might end up straining its relations with Saudi Arabia.
Qatar-Saudi Arabia conflict
This diplomatic conflict is also known as the Second Arab Cold War (the first one being the Iran-Saudi Arabia Cold War). There is an ongoing struggle between the two countries to gain influence in the Gulf. Their relations strained especially after the emergence of Arab Spring. During that time, Qatar became in favour of the revolutionary wave, whereas Saudi Arabia was against it. Both the States are allies of the United States, but have a tussle in their ideologies. Both have avoided direct conflict with each other.
There are other issues between them which leads to further tussle-
1. Qatar broadcasts a news channel, Al Jazeera, which favours the Arab Spring.
2. Qatar has good relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia's rival.
3. Qatar also allegedly supported Muslim Brotherhood in the past. Which it denies.
The Qatar diplomatic crisis became worse in 2017. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic relations and trade ties with Doha, and imposed a sea, land and air blockade on Qatar, claiming it supported “terrorism” and was too close to Iran. Yemen, the Maldives and Libya's eastern-based government also followed later. Qatar rejected the claims and said there was “no legitimate justification” for the severance of the relations.
How does this new alliance affect the other countries in the region?
The new alliance seems to lead into formations of two alliance groups or blocs in the region, with some countries siding with Iran, Qatar and Turkey and others with the Saudis and their allies. Another point to keep in mind is that Saudi Arabia is supported by the US, while two countries from the former alliance—Turkey and Iran—are supported by Russia. This will lead to further division among the Middle Eastern countries.
President Trump, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain, Israeli Prime Minister, and Minister of Foreign Affairs for the UAE Signing the Abraham Accords | Source: Trump White House Archives
This alliance can also affect the trade among these countries, and can severe the ties of many Middle Eastern countries. The biggest beneficiary is going to be Israel, which doesn’t have good relations with most of the Muslim world, except the ones which established diplomatic ties recently by signing the Abraham Accords.
In North Africa countries like Egypt and Morocco recognise Israel. However, most of the North African countries also supported the Arab Springs, which is against the ideas of Saudi Arabia. The Islamic holy land seriously seems to have less Arab allies when it comes to opposing the Arab Springs.
In fact, there can be impacts on trade and diplomatic ties with other countries outside the Middle East and North African region as well. Countries will have to balance their relations with both these groups.
How does it affect the Balance of power in the region?
In international relations, balance of power refers to the posture and policy of a nation or group of nations protecting itself against another nation or group of nations by matching its power with the power of the other side.
There has been a Cold War situation between Iran and Saudi Arabia as they are very (perhaps most) influential powers in the region. But Saudi Arabia is still more influential as a business as well as a soft power—it has a richer economy, oil exports, and most importantly, being the holy land where every Muslim comes for Hajj pilgrimage—it has Mecca and Medina. It is the land where the Prophet Muhammad first delivered his messages and teachings. Iran may try to compete in the economic part, but isn't equally as challenging in the religious part—although it is an important country for the Shia Muslims.
There have been arms embargo on Iran by the UN for arms race. Russia and China have been eager to supply Iran with advanced jets, tanks and missiles, which is quite alarming for its Gulf Arab neighbours, especially its primary adversaries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
On 14 September 2019, drones were used to attack the state-owned Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia. The Houthi movement in Yemen claimed responsibility, joining it to events surrounding the Saudi Arabian intervention in the Yemeni Civil War and stating that they used ten drones in the attack from Yemen. Saudi Arabian officials said that many more drones and cruise missiles were used for the attack and these originated from the north and east, and that they were of Iranian manufacture. The United States and Saudi Arabia have stated that Iran was behind the attack while France, Germany, and the United Kingdom jointly stated Iran bears responsibility for it. Iran has denied any involvement. The situation has only exacerbated the Persian Gulf crisis.
By forming this new alliance, supporting the Palestinian cause—with Qatar—even supporting the idea of Arab Springs; the Iran-Turkey-Qatar alliance has a new power with them. What remains to be seen is the other Middle Eastern country’s decision—whether they support this new alliance and the Palestinian cause or go for yet another fragile “peace-building” initiative in the already disturbed region.
