Thursday, July 2, 2020

China's attempt to curtail Hong Kong's autonomy: Will it force the people to leave Hong Kong?

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Nikhita Gautam

Article Title

China's attempt to curtail Hong Kong's autonomy: Will it force the people to leave Hong Kong?

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Global Views 360

Publication Date

July 2, 2020

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Pro-Democracy protest in Hong Kong

Pro-Democracy protest in Hong Kong | Source: VoA via Wikimedia

The sovereignty of Hong Kong was reverted to China by Britain in 1997. Although it became part of China but enjoyed some autonomy and internal democracy due to the “one country, two systems” arrangement between Britain and with China at the time of handover. This arrangement of autonomy and democratic rights were supposed to last until 2047. However, the Communist Party of China had been pushing for a new security law which would curb the voices of the residents significantly, criminalizing acts of secession, subversion, terrorism or collusion with foreign forces. “This law means that China will have the power to impose its own laws on any criminal suspect it chooses,” says Joshua Rosenzweig, the head of Amnesty’s China team.

This is a part of the agitation that is faced by the Hong Kong residents; the economy is shrinking, the government is more focused on linking the city to the mainland than investing in education and affordable housing, peaceful protests have turned violent and are facing police brutality. This has caused changes in international relations with respect to economy and immigration, and a flurry of Hong Kong residents exploring options to leave the city. Skilled workers are seeking to move out of the city, renewing documents which will provide a pathway to residency in Britain, or ways to emigrate to Taiwan, Canada or Australia.

Britain, which had colonised Hong Kong until 1997, announced that it would extend visa rights for all the people eligible to apply for British National Overseas passport, which includes 3 million people, if China went through with the law. The Chinese foreign ministry said that this move violated international law, and that China reserves the right to take measures they see as necessary.

Taiwan has announced that it will set up an office for those who are planning to leave Hong Kong. Chinese government has said that there has been no stifling of freedoms and providing shelter for “rioters and elements who bring chaos” to Hong Kong would bring harm to Taiwan’s people. The island country had housed Hong Kong’s protesters who feared harsh treatment by the law and enforcement since 2019, with its own history of dissension with mainland China.

USA, on a similar vein, has taken away the special economic status Hong Kong had with them, and that the Chinese plans are a “tragedy.”

Many pro-democracy protesters who were on the radar of Chinese government have started  escaping the country to protect themselves and continue the protests from their adopted countries. The excessive use of brutal force against peaceful protesters led many people to fear for the future of their families for which they started to consider leaving the city . The same fear is also driving more than half of the people within the age group of 18 to 24 towards exploring the option of moving out of Hong Kong..

Even after worldwide criticism, mainland China remains adamant on violating the freedoms of the people of Hong Kong. Amidst a collapsing economy which just lost its preference from a world superpower and living under the constant threat of oppressive actions are driving the well healed parsons to look for greener pastures away from Hong Kong.

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February 4, 2021 4:52 PM

Randomised Control Trials and the Alleviation of Poverty in India

Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo won the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics for their “experimental approach in alleviating global poverty”. Their experimental approach encompassed a variety of novel methods to understand and analyse interventions and Randomised Control Trials (RCTs). Their research has been used by policy makers to make informed policy decisions to best help the marginalised.

What are RCTs?

To understand the effect of a policy, intervention, or medicine, decision makers try to measure the efficacy of the treatment. Do deworming pills given to children improve test scores? Does providing chlorinated water improve the health and economic outcomes of villages? These are some causal (read causal, i.e. caused by, not casual) questions researchers are interested in. The best way to analyse causal effects is to randomise the selection of people in the treatment and the control group (for example: children who are given deworming pills versus children who are not given the pills). This random selection of the two groups removes many statistical biases that might affect the results.

RCTs in India:

Many of the RCTs performed by Banerjee and Duflo were in India. They involved short- and long-term impact assessments of various interventions, policies, models, and treatments. We look at a few RCTs implemented in India:

Teacher absenteeism rates:

Troubled by the low attendance rates (or high absence rates) of public-school teachers in India, Duflo assessed the impact of financial incentives on the absence rates of teachers in Rajasthan. The study monitored teacher attendance by cameras, which was tied to a financial incentive if the attendance was high. From a baseline absence rate of 44%, teacher absenteeism in the treatment group fell by 21%, relative to the control group. High teacher attendance caused child test scores to improve too.

COVID-19 and health-seeking behaviour:

In the context of COVID-19, Banerjee tested the effect of sending messages via SMS that promoted health preserving behaviour. The results were very positive. By sending a short, 2.5-minute clip to 25 million randomly selected individuals in West Bengal, the intervention i) found a two-fold increase in symptom reporting to village health workers, ii) increased hand washing rates by 7%, and iii) increased mask-wearing by 2%. While mask-wearing rates increased only marginally, the spillover effects (wearing a mask stops the virus from infecting more people) were moderately high and positive.

Asset Transfers and the Notion of Poverty:

An RCT by Banerjee in West Bengal involving a productive asset transfer accompanied with training found large and persistent effects on monthly consumption and other variables. The treatment group reported 25% higher consumption levels relative to the control group, who did not receive the asset transfer and training. Implications of such RCTs are huge. The notion that the poor are lazy and unwilling to perform strenuous labour is falsified by this RCT. Often, what the poor lack are opportunities that are hard to come by, given their financial status. A small nudge, like the asset transfer, can cause large and positive effects on their well-being.  

Salt fortification to reduce anaemia:

RCTs also help rule out less cost-effective interventions. Duflo and Banerjee evaluated an RCT which distributed fortified salt in 400 villages of Bihar, to reduce the prevalence of anaemia. However, this intervention found no statistically significant impact on health outcomes like anaemia, hemoglobin, etc.  Thus, while RCTs help introduce novel methods of impacting the lives of the poor, they also help in ruling out in-effective measures. A policy maker might try other alternatives to reduce the prevalence of anaemia.

Are RCTs the gold standard?

Maybe. Extrapolating results from a regional RCT to national policies could present problems. Contextuality matters. A study that indicates positive gains for one region might present different, and rather adverse effects for another region. Nation wide effects might not be as prominent as regional results of a single RCT. The good part is that Banerjee and Duflo have a solution. Just perform more RCTs!

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