China's attempt to curtail Hong Kong's autonomy: Will it force the people to leave Hong Kong?
Publisher
Global Views 360
Publication Date
July 2, 2020
URL
Pro-Democracy protest in Hong Kong | Source: VoA via Wikimedia
The sovereignty of Hong Kong was reverted to China by Britain in 1997. Although it became part of China but enjoyed some autonomy and internal democracy due to the “one country, two systems” arrangement between Britain and with China at the time of handover. This arrangement of autonomy and democratic rights were supposed to last until 2047. However, the Communist Party of China had been pushing for a new security law which would curb the voices of the residents significantly, criminalizing acts of secession, subversion, terrorism or collusion with foreign forces. “This law means that China will have the power to impose its own laws on any criminal suspect it chooses,” says Joshua Rosenzweig, the head of Amnesty’s China team.
This is a part of the agitation that is faced by the Hong Kong residents; the economy is shrinking, the government is more focused on linking the city to the mainland than investing in education and affordable housing, peaceful protests have turned violent and are facing police brutality. This has caused changes in international relations with respect to economy and immigration, and a flurry of Hong Kong residents exploring options to leave the city. Skilled workers are seeking to move out of the city, renewing documents which will provide a pathway to residency in Britain, or ways to emigrate to Taiwan, Canada or Australia.
Britain, which had colonised Hong Kong until 1997, announced that it would extend visa rights for all the people eligible to apply for British National Overseas passport, which includes 3 million people, if China went through with the law. The Chinese foreign ministry said that this move violated international law, and that China reserves the right to take measures they see as necessary.
Taiwan has announced that it will set up an office for those who are planning to leave Hong Kong. Chinese government has said that there has been no stifling of freedoms and providing shelter for “rioters and elements who bring chaos” to Hong Kong would bring harm to Taiwan’s people. The island country had housed Hong Kong’s protesters who feared harsh treatment by the law and enforcement since 2019, with its own history of dissension with mainland China.
USA, on a similar vein, has taken away the special economic status Hong Kong had with them, and that the Chinese plans are a “tragedy.”
Many pro-democracy protesters who were on the radar of Chinese government have started escaping the country to protect themselves and continue the protests from their adopted countries. The excessive use of brutal force against peaceful protesters led many people to fear for the future of their families for which they started to consider leaving the city . The same fear is also driving more than half of the people within the age group of 18 to 24 towards exploring the option of moving out of Hong Kong..
Even after worldwide criticism, mainland China remains adamant on violating the freedoms of the people of Hong Kong. Amidst a collapsing economy which just lost its preference from a world superpower and living under the constant threat of oppressive actions are driving the well healed parsons to look for greener pastures away from Hong Kong.
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Iran, Turkey, Qatar Alliance: Will this mark a shift in MENA's Balance of power?
Qatar, Iran and Turkey have been forming an alliance—which impacts several countries—especially in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. The move comes after Israel recently established its diplomatic relations with four Arab league countries, namely, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. The article covers how this move can have an impact on the balance of power in the region.
Support for the Palestinian Cause
The three countries are critical of the Israel-Arab ties and support the Palestinian cause. Various Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Fatah as well, are shoring up ties with Turkey and other countries in the region that stand against normalization with Israel.
During his speech in the 75th United Nations General Assembly, Erdogan called out on Israel and proclaimed, “The occupation of Palestine is a bleeding wound.”
Since the Gaza attack, which killed 10 Turkish social activists aboard a ship by the Israeli commandos in international waters, the relationship between the two has only soured. After this incident, Turkey recalled its ambassador from Israel, downgrading the diplomatic status. Yet in 2016—after a few meetings—the relationship was restored. However, after another attack in Gaza in 2018, Turkey called back its ambassadors again and expelled the Israeli ambassador to Turkey. Since then they do not have full diplomatic status.
Following the attacks Erdogan—the president of Turkey—even called Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu “a terrorist.” The country has been openly supportive of the Palestinian cause, and has also sent aid for humanitarian relief to the Palestinians. Several Hamas leaders have been visiting, taking refuge, and even meeting with Erdogan.
On August 22, 2020, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh met Erdogan in Istanbul. Jibril Rajoub, secretary of Fatah’s Central Committee, as well arrived in Turkey on September 21, 2020 to meet with Haniyeh and his deputy Saleh al-Arouri and discuss ways to end the internal Palestinian division.
On the same day, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas phoned Erdogan and thanked him for his support for the Palestinian cause. The two have shared several calls since—discussing political developments and US pressure on the region to normalize ties with Israel and ways to face such pressure.
Turkey has tried to balance its relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, who happen to be arch rivals. But after the recent growing closeness with two of Saudi Arabia’s rival countries, Iran and Qatar, Turkey might end up straining its relations with Saudi Arabia.
Qatar-Saudi Arabia conflict
This diplomatic conflict is also known as the Second Arab Cold War (the first one being the Iran-Saudi Arabia Cold War). There is an ongoing struggle between the two countries to gain influence in the Gulf. Their relations strained especially after the emergence of Arab Spring. During that time, Qatar became in favour of the revolutionary wave, whereas Saudi Arabia was against it. Both the States are allies of the United States, but have a tussle in their ideologies. Both have avoided direct conflict with each other.
There are other issues between them which leads to further tussle-
1. Qatar broadcasts a news channel, Al Jazeera, which favours the Arab Spring.
2. Qatar has good relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia's rival.
3. Qatar also allegedly supported Muslim Brotherhood in the past. Which it denies.
The Qatar diplomatic crisis became worse in 2017. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic relations and trade ties with Doha, and imposed a sea, land and air blockade on Qatar, claiming it supported “terrorism” and was too close to Iran. Yemen, the Maldives and Libya's eastern-based government also followed later. Qatar rejected the claims and said there was “no legitimate justification” for the severance of the relations.
How does this new alliance affect the other countries in the region?
The new alliance seems to lead into formations of two alliance groups or blocs in the region, with some countries siding with Iran, Qatar and Turkey and others with the Saudis and their allies. Another point to keep in mind is that Saudi Arabia is supported by the US, while two countries from the former alliance—Turkey and Iran—are supported by Russia. This will lead to further division among the Middle Eastern countries.
President Trump, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Bahrain, Israeli Prime Minister, and Minister of Foreign Affairs for the UAE Signing the Abraham Accords | Source: Trump White House Archives
This alliance can also affect the trade among these countries, and can severe the ties of many Middle Eastern countries. The biggest beneficiary is going to be Israel, which doesn’t have good relations with most of the Muslim world, except the ones which established diplomatic ties recently by signing the Abraham Accords.
In North Africa countries like Egypt and Morocco recognise Israel. However, most of the North African countries also supported the Arab Springs, which is against the ideas of Saudi Arabia. The Islamic holy land seriously seems to have less Arab allies when it comes to opposing the Arab Springs.
In fact, there can be impacts on trade and diplomatic ties with other countries outside the Middle East and North African region as well. Countries will have to balance their relations with both these groups.
How does it affect the Balance of power in the region?
In international relations, balance of power refers to the posture and policy of a nation or group of nations protecting itself against another nation or group of nations by matching its power with the power of the other side.
There has been a Cold War situation between Iran and Saudi Arabia as they are very (perhaps most) influential powers in the region. But Saudi Arabia is still more influential as a business as well as a soft power—it has a richer economy, oil exports, and most importantly, being the holy land where every Muslim comes for Hajj pilgrimage—it has Mecca and Medina. It is the land where the Prophet Muhammad first delivered his messages and teachings. Iran may try to compete in the economic part, but isn't equally as challenging in the religious part—although it is an important country for the Shia Muslims.
There have been arms embargo on Iran by the UN for arms race. Russia and China have been eager to supply Iran with advanced jets, tanks and missiles, which is quite alarming for its Gulf Arab neighbours, especially its primary adversaries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
On 14 September 2019, drones were used to attack the state-owned Saudi Aramco oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais in eastern Saudi Arabia. The Houthi movement in Yemen claimed responsibility, joining it to events surrounding the Saudi Arabian intervention in the Yemeni Civil War and stating that they used ten drones in the attack from Yemen. Saudi Arabian officials said that many more drones and cruise missiles were used for the attack and these originated from the north and east, and that they were of Iranian manufacture. The United States and Saudi Arabia have stated that Iran was behind the attack while France, Germany, and the United Kingdom jointly stated Iran bears responsibility for it. Iran has denied any involvement. The situation has only exacerbated the Persian Gulf crisis.
By forming this new alliance, supporting the Palestinian cause—with Qatar—even supporting the idea of Arab Springs; the Iran-Turkey-Qatar alliance has a new power with them. What remains to be seen is the other Middle Eastern country’s decision—whether they support this new alliance and the Palestinian cause or go for yet another fragile “peace-building” initiative in the already disturbed region.
