Friday, July 24, 2020

Can Vietnam leverage its COVID-19 success for economic growth?

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Inshiya Nalawala

Article Title

Can Vietnam leverage its COVID-19 success for economic growth?

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Global Views 360

Publication Date

July 24, 2020

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A policeman helping a rider fix their mask

A policeman helping a rider fix their mask | Source: Đài Truyền Thanh TPST via Wikimedia

While the entire world is battling with COVID-19, Vietnam, in a country of over 100 million recorded just 330 cases as of early June 2020 and zero death in May 2020.

A professor at Nagasaki University’s Institute of Tropical Medicine Vietnam Research Station said that "Vietnam has no special test kits or drugs to treat the disease, but the government decided to do what it had to do at an early stage and put that plan straight into practice."

Vietnam was quick in its action. As soon as the first case was confirmed, the government had called upon measures for serious quarantine, implemented strict border control measures, and curbed unnecessary local movement. Close to a million people were isolated to halt the spread of further infections.

The strict measures helped Vietnam to quickly control the COVID situation and put the focus back on the economy. The mainstay of Vietnam's economy, garment export and tourism witnessed steep fall resulting in loss of employment to over 3.5 million people in the first half of 2020. Still Vietnam’s economy has expanded by 0.36% over last year in the same period unlike other countries in the region where it contracted as compared to last year. The annual GDP growth for Vietnam in 2020 is expected to be around 2.7% to 3% which again is the best in the region.

Vietnam , today is the safest country in the region to travel, work, or stay amidst the worldwide COVID pandemic. It is being favourably considered as an alternative destination by many companies who are looking to cut down their reliance on China in their supply chain.  The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union and Vietnam which will be operational in August, may help Vietnam grow its exports.

Apart from export led growth, the tourism sector may also grow significantly as the other major tourist destinations in the region, Singapore and Thailand, are still battling with the pandemic, while Vietnam has successfully overcome the same.

The government is also looking to support the local business by slashing the corporate income tax to 30 percent which increased the liquidity for some sectors of economy. Special tax benefits and deferred tax payments(in some cases) are also in  line for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) which constitutes almost 97% of all the businesses in Vietnam. All these measures are expected to lead to a 7% GDP growth for Vietnam in 2021.

The miraculous recovery from the pandemic, government incentives to industry, and the willingness of many companies to relocate from China present such a perfect mix of opportunities for Vietnam to leap ahead and become the fastest-growing economies in SouthAsia. What remains is to see how fast and how effectively the country is able to act while this window of opportunity is open.

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February 4, 2021 4:58 PM

COVID-19 and its impact on the Agri Economy of Punjab

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the agricultural economy of the Indian state of Punjab really hard. Punjab’s paddy farmers have traditionally relied on migrant agricultural labourers who are mostly natives of the state of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Due to the pandemic, a large number of migrant labourers have returned to their native place causing a massive shortage of farm workers in Punjab.

Its impact became more severe as the paddy transplantation period was already around. Gurbachan Singh, a local paddy farmer told news agency ANI, "There is a shortage of labourers as the government sent back the migrant workers without proper planning."

The shortage of migrant workers forced the farmers to rely more on the local labourers. The local labourers used this opportunity to demand more wages which has resulted in almost doubling the labour cost. The migrant labourers used to charge around ₹2500 per acre for sowing paddy while the local ones were demanding ₹4000 per acre for the same work.

The  village panchayat (Local village council) tried to fix the labour charges of ₹3,000 per acre which did not go down well with local labourers. This caused a dispute which even resulted in a clash between labourers and farmers where the shots were fired as well.

The labour shortage does not appear to be ending soon as most migrant labourers are not willing to come back. Viresh Kumar, a labour contractor from Sonbarsa in Bihar’s Sitamarhi district who supplies workers to paddy farmers in Phagwara, told ThePrint, “Workers from Bihar and UP either don’t want to come back to fields in Punjab or they want farmers or us to bear the cost of bringing them back, which is a very expensive and complex procedure now. Due to the lack of sufficient number of regular trains, the cost of bringing a single migrant to Punjab is around Rs 3,000 to Rs 4,000 per person.”

The shortage of cheap labour has forced the local farmers to start looking for some alternative which could maintain the economic feasibility of farming.also provided some benefit

Agricultural Secretary of Punjab government, KS Pannu noted that some of the farmers have started employing new technology to cope up with the labour shortage. "Farmers have sown paddy at around 5 lakh hectare land with Direct Seeding of Rice technology this year. Some farmers, however, shifted back to the puddling method for cultivation as they could not adapt to the technology," Pannu told ANI.

Manpreet Ayali, a member of Punjab State Legislative Assembly, and a wealthy farmer, says that this labour shortage is a blessing in disguise for the farmers as it would make them more self-reliant, rather than depending on labour for the transplantation season.

The shortage of cheap migrant labour has forced many farmers to cut down the area of paddy cultivation. Experts believe that due to the reduced area of transplantation the groundwater levels might improve in the state which tops the country in over-exploitation of groundwater reserves.

It is still too early to give a definite verdict on the long term impact of the COVID-19 on the agricultural economy of Punjab, but in the short term it is nothing short of a disaster for the local farmers.

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