Friday, July 24, 2020

Can Vietnam leverage its COVID-19 success for economic growth?

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Inshiya Nalawala

Article Title

Can Vietnam leverage its COVID-19 success for economic growth?

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Global Views 360

Publication Date

July 24, 2020

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A policeman helping a rider fix their mask

A policeman helping a rider fix their mask | Source: Đài Truyền Thanh TPST via Wikimedia

While the entire world is battling with COVID-19, Vietnam, in a country of over 100 million recorded just 330 cases as of early June 2020 and zero death in May 2020.

A professor at Nagasaki University’s Institute of Tropical Medicine Vietnam Research Station said that "Vietnam has no special test kits or drugs to treat the disease, but the government decided to do what it had to do at an early stage and put that plan straight into practice."

Vietnam was quick in its action. As soon as the first case was confirmed, the government had called upon measures for serious quarantine, implemented strict border control measures, and curbed unnecessary local movement. Close to a million people were isolated to halt the spread of further infections.

The strict measures helped Vietnam to quickly control the COVID situation and put the focus back on the economy. The mainstay of Vietnam's economy, garment export and tourism witnessed steep fall resulting in loss of employment to over 3.5 million people in the first half of 2020. Still Vietnam’s economy has expanded by 0.36% over last year in the same period unlike other countries in the region where it contracted as compared to last year. The annual GDP growth for Vietnam in 2020 is expected to be around 2.7% to 3% which again is the best in the region.

Vietnam , today is the safest country in the region to travel, work, or stay amidst the worldwide COVID pandemic. It is being favourably considered as an alternative destination by many companies who are looking to cut down their reliance on China in their supply chain.  The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the European Union and Vietnam which will be operational in August, may help Vietnam grow its exports.

Apart from export led growth, the tourism sector may also grow significantly as the other major tourist destinations in the region, Singapore and Thailand, are still battling with the pandemic, while Vietnam has successfully overcome the same.

The government is also looking to support the local business by slashing the corporate income tax to 30 percent which increased the liquidity for some sectors of economy. Special tax benefits and deferred tax payments(in some cases) are also in  line for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) which constitutes almost 97% of all the businesses in Vietnam. All these measures are expected to lead to a 7% GDP growth for Vietnam in 2021.

The miraculous recovery from the pandemic, government incentives to industry, and the willingness of many companies to relocate from China present such a perfect mix of opportunities for Vietnam to leap ahead and become the fastest-growing economies in SouthAsia. What remains is to see how fast and how effectively the country is able to act while this window of opportunity is open.

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February 4, 2021 5:11 PM

Neom: The Futuristic town coming up in the Arabian desert

Ever since Mohammed bin Salman, popularly known as MBS, became the crown prince of Saudi Arabia in 2017 at a young age of 32 year, he has been working on twin objectives of liberalising the conservative laws of the country and diversifying its oil based economy.

In the last 2 to 3 years Saudi Arabia has done away with religious enforcers, allowed women to drive, loosened the strict clothing norms for women, reopened the cinema and other entertainment events by scaling down many of its ultra conservative rules and regulation.

File:Mohammad bin Salman (2018-06-14) 01.jpg
Mohammad Bin Salman | Source: Russian Presidential Executive Office via Wikimedia

On the economy front, MBS has started many projects to lessen the dependence on oil, of which Neom is the centerpiece. NEOM is a technologically advanced mega-city being built from scratch in the sands at the coast of the Red Sea and is considered to be the dream project of MBS. This magnificent city, will take about $500 billion to complete and be thirty three times the size of New York City. This project will make the country a technology hub, attract international tourists, and will reduce Saudi Arabian economy’s over-dependence on oil.

Neom will boost some of the features which are today seen only in some sci-fi movies. It will employ cloud seeding technology to bring rain in the desert town, display an artificial moon, and use flying taxis for intra city travel. The town will have some functional autonomy which include relaxed laws for women and tourists.

Three of the biggest consultancy firms of the world, Boston Consulting, Oliver Wyman and McKinsey & Co, were roped in by MBS in 2017, to bring his vision of Neom to life. “This is a challenge. The dream is easy but making it come true is very difficult” MBS said.

While the entire project is slated to be completed in 2025, the international airport is already constructed at Neom. Phase-1 of the project was supposed to be completed in 2020, however it was delayed due to the oil price crash and COVID-19 pandemic. “All of these projects will be delayed. It's not paused; it's continuing more slowly” said Ali Shihabi, a Washington-based analyst on the Neom advisory board.

Abdul-Rahim Al-Huwaiti, protestor who was shot dead | Source: MENA Rights

Saudi Arabia has done a wonderful job of letting the imaginations run wild to come up with an idea and start implementation, there are few downsides as well. The area where Neom is being built is home to the Huwaitat tribe who have to relocate elsewhere for the construction to take place. While most of the tribe members agreed to move on, few were not willing to do so. Abdul-Rahim Al-Huwaiti was one such member who actively resisted and criticized the government in videos posted on youtube. He was unfortunately shot dead by the government forces during an operation to clear his house in April, 2020 giving a blot to this wonderful project.

There are still some obstacles in the ‘perfect’ project of modernising Saudi Arabia. “The main project risk probably is the potential lack of large private investors. The local and international private sector will want to hear a lot more detail than what has been published to date” said Steffen Hertog, a leading scholar on Saudi Arabia, pointing out that a lot of clarifications and work is still required.

There is still time before this magnificent town rises to its full glory on the coast of the red sea in Arabian desert. We are eagerly waiting to see the flawless execution of a grand vision of Saudi Arabian crown prince Mohannad bin Salman in the form of the modern marvel, Neom.

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