Friday, July 24, 2020

Assam Floods 2020: What no one is talking about

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Charvi Trivedi

Article Title

Assam Floods 2020: What no one is talking about

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Global Views 360

Publication Date

July 24, 2020

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People relocating during Assam Floods

People relocating during Assam Floods | Source: BMN Network via Flickr

With the COVID-19 pandemic under limelight this year, many other devastating incidents are sadly being pushed under the carpet. The raging floods in Assam, a North-Eastern province of India, is one of the scenarios not receiving much attention.

The flooding of third longest river of the world, Brahmaputra and its tributaries have claimed more than 75 human lives and affected a population of over 300 thousand. This is a lot more than the number of people affected due to COVID-19 in India.

As per the Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA), 26 of 33 districts across the state are badly affected. Roughly 85% of Kaziranga National Park, which is a UNESCO world heritage site and a home to the rare one-horned rhinoceros, is submerged under water, killing as many as 100 animals including nine rhinos. Hundreds of other animals are fleeing the inundated forests and seeking refuge in the nearby villages.

Landslides triggered due to floods have resulted in approximately 25 deaths. Additionally, the fire which broke out at a gas well of Oil India Limited (OIL) in the Tinsukia district of eastern Assam displaced many people from their houses, destroyed tea gardens and polluted Maguri-Motapung Beel, a nearby water body. The fire was so severe that even a month was not enough to extinguish it completely.

However, the state government is doing their best in turning schools and similar places into relief camps and distributing necessities like food, masks and sanitizers to the displaced. Nearly 125 animals have been rescued.  “We have 40 teams of the State Disaster Response Force in the worst-hit areas and the army also is on standby,” says M.S. Mannivanan, head of ASDMA, as of July 16, 2020. Almost 50,000 people are seeking refuge in more than 600 relief camps.

PM Modi finally spoke to Sarbananda Sonowal, Chief Minister of Assam on July 19 and enquired about the floods and the fire which broke out at OIL. He assured his full support as well. The United Nations has also lent a helping hand, stating that it is ready to support the Indian Government, if need be.

Keeping the current pandemic in mind and adhering to the guidelines of social distancing, more areas have been converted into relief camps. Usually, a space of 3.5sq m is allocated to every individual. Whereas now, due to the current circumstances, every person gets double the area. Strict rules are also being followed to ensure safety and hygiene. Fortunately, there are no reported cases from these camps, as of July 19, 2020.

Along with relief camps, many distribution centres have also been set up across 21 districts of Assam. The authorities have distributed about 7 lakh kilograms of staple food items like rice, dal and salt along with roughly 11,000 litres of mustard oil and other required goods, as of July 13, 2020.

The devastating floods which is a recurring phenomenon in Assam indicates that extreme events are now more likely to occur as our weather patterns continue to deteriorate due to climate change. These incidents are merely showcasing the power nature which is unleashed from time to time as a warning to the humankind.

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February 4, 2021 4:52 PM

Randomised Control Trials and the Alleviation of Poverty in India

Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo won the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics for their “experimental approach in alleviating global poverty”. Their experimental approach encompassed a variety of novel methods to understand and analyse interventions and Randomised Control Trials (RCTs). Their research has been used by policy makers to make informed policy decisions to best help the marginalised.

What are RCTs?

To understand the effect of a policy, intervention, or medicine, decision makers try to measure the efficacy of the treatment. Do deworming pills given to children improve test scores? Does providing chlorinated water improve the health and economic outcomes of villages? These are some causal (read causal, i.e. caused by, not casual) questions researchers are interested in. The best way to analyse causal effects is to randomise the selection of people in the treatment and the control group (for example: children who are given deworming pills versus children who are not given the pills). This random selection of the two groups removes many statistical biases that might affect the results.

RCTs in India:

Many of the RCTs performed by Banerjee and Duflo were in India. They involved short- and long-term impact assessments of various interventions, policies, models, and treatments. We look at a few RCTs implemented in India:

Teacher absenteeism rates:

Troubled by the low attendance rates (or high absence rates) of public-school teachers in India, Duflo assessed the impact of financial incentives on the absence rates of teachers in Rajasthan. The study monitored teacher attendance by cameras, which was tied to a financial incentive if the attendance was high. From a baseline absence rate of 44%, teacher absenteeism in the treatment group fell by 21%, relative to the control group. High teacher attendance caused child test scores to improve too.

COVID-19 and health-seeking behaviour:

In the context of COVID-19, Banerjee tested the effect of sending messages via SMS that promoted health preserving behaviour. The results were very positive. By sending a short, 2.5-minute clip to 25 million randomly selected individuals in West Bengal, the intervention i) found a two-fold increase in symptom reporting to village health workers, ii) increased hand washing rates by 7%, and iii) increased mask-wearing by 2%. While mask-wearing rates increased only marginally, the spillover effects (wearing a mask stops the virus from infecting more people) were moderately high and positive.

Asset Transfers and the Notion of Poverty:

An RCT by Banerjee in West Bengal involving a productive asset transfer accompanied with training found large and persistent effects on monthly consumption and other variables. The treatment group reported 25% higher consumption levels relative to the control group, who did not receive the asset transfer and training. Implications of such RCTs are huge. The notion that the poor are lazy and unwilling to perform strenuous labour is falsified by this RCT. Often, what the poor lack are opportunities that are hard to come by, given their financial status. A small nudge, like the asset transfer, can cause large and positive effects on their well-being.  

Salt fortification to reduce anaemia:

RCTs also help rule out less cost-effective interventions. Duflo and Banerjee evaluated an RCT which distributed fortified salt in 400 villages of Bihar, to reduce the prevalence of anaemia. However, this intervention found no statistically significant impact on health outcomes like anaemia, hemoglobin, etc.  Thus, while RCTs help introduce novel methods of impacting the lives of the poor, they also help in ruling out in-effective measures. A policy maker might try other alternatives to reduce the prevalence of anaemia.

Are RCTs the gold standard?

Maybe. Extrapolating results from a regional RCT to national policies could present problems. Contextuality matters. A study that indicates positive gains for one region might present different, and rather adverse effects for another region. Nation wide effects might not be as prominent as regional results of a single RCT. The good part is that Banerjee and Duflo have a solution. Just perform more RCTs!

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